Australia’s health workforce demand is entering a period of sustained, structural demand growth driven by population ageing, chronic disease, and expanding care models, with health care and social assistance set to remain the country’s fastest‑growing employer through the 2030s.
At the same time, governments are investing in increasingly sophisticated supply‑and‑demand models to identify emerging shortages by profession and region so they can intervene earlier.
1. Big picture: health as Australia’s growth industry
Health Care and Social Assistance is already Australia’s largest employing industry and will widen its lead over the next decade.
According to Jobs and Skills Australia’s projections, summarised in “Healthcare career opportunities Australia 2033”:
- Total employment in Australia is expected to grow by about 14.2% by 2033, reaching around 15.9 million jobs.
- The Healthcare and Social Assistance sector is projected to increase its share of total employment from 15.2% in 2023 to 16.7% in 2033, making it the fastest‑growing industry.
- Community and personal service workers—including aged care and disability support—are forecast to account for 11.4% of all jobs by 2033, reflecting strong demand for direct‑care roles.
Jobs and Skills Australia’s summary report “Towards a National Jobs and Skills Roadmap” emphasises that Health Care and Social Assistance is the highest employing industry by share in 2033 in all states and territories, at over 15% of employment everywhere. That implies continued broad‑based demand for doctors, nurses, allied health, care workers and support staff.
2. Federal modelling: supply–demand frameworks out to 2030–2040
The Australian Government is explicitly building complex models to understand where shortages and surpluses will emerge.
The Department of Health’s Health Workforce Data – Supply and Demand page states that the department is developing “complex supply and demand models to identify workforce trends including oversupply and shortages across specific professions and geographical areas.” The goal is to ensure the workforce can meet the growing needs of an increasing and ageing population, with outputs used to inform policy, training numbers and migration settings.
Earlier national modelling work—like “Doctors – Australia’s Future Health Workforce report”—provides a template. That report contains detailed projections for doctor supply, demand and training needs between 2014 and 2030, and highlights how scenario‑based modelling can flag future shortages (for example in general practice and some specialties) well before they become acute. The current modelling efforts extend this approach across more professions and out toward 2040.
3. National employment projections to 2033
While detailed clinical workforce projections are still being updated, national employment forecasts give a clear signal of where demand is heading.
Jobs and Skills Australia’s employment projections for the decade ahead show that:
- Total employment is projected to increase by around 6.5% over the next 5 years (to 14.8 million) and 14.2% over 10 years (to 15.9 million).
- Growth is broad‑based across industries, but Health Care and Social Assistance is expected to experience the greatest growth by far, increasing its share of total employment more than any other sector.
The NextGem summary translates this into occupational terms: health‑related roles make up a large share of the projected increase, particularly community and personal service workers, as well as professionals across health disciplines. This aligns with international patterns; for instance, US Bureau of Labor Statistics projections show health care and social assistance adding more jobs than any other sector between 2023 and 2033.
4. State‑level projections: NSW and Victoria out to 2040
States are also modelling their own health workforce futures, often out to 2040, to support local planning.
NSW: megatrends and allied health to 2040
NSW Health’s report “Beyond tomorrow: Health megatrends anticipated to impact NSW out to 2040” outlines emerging trends that will shape workforce demand, including:
- An ageing population with more complex, chronic conditions.
- Technological change (AI, telehealth, virtual care).
- Community expectations for more personalised and culturally safe care.
It argues that these megatrends will require more highly skilled clinicians, new roles, and redesigned workflows across the state.
A complementary project, NSW Health Allied Health Workforce Modelling to 2040, models supply and demand for allied health professions in the NSW public system. The project had three core objectives:
- Model allied health workforce requirements to 2040.
- Understand workforce supply, including graduate inflows and exits.
- Provide data to inform NSW Health and Local Health District workforce planning.
The modelling helps identify future gaps for roles such as physiotherapists, occupational therapists, speech pathologists and psychologists, and informs training and recruitment strategies.
Victoria: Health 2040
Victoria’s “Health 2040: Advancing health, access and care” framework sets out a long‑term vision for the state’s health system, including workforce. It recognises that policies, planning and training will need to:
- Build a workforce that reflects the diversity of the community.
- Equip workers with new skills for integrated, community‑based and digitally enabled care.
- Support team‑based and cross‑disciplinary models to meet complex needs.
Health 2040 does not publish explicit workforce numbers, but it anchors strategic decisions around expected demand growth and changing models of care.
5. Condition‑driven demand: chronic disease and ageing
Projections of disease burden illustrate why health workforce demand is rising.
A 2024 projection by researchers at Curtin University and Arthritis Australia, summarised in “The Future Burden of Arthritis in Australia: Projections to 2040”, estimates that:
- 4.1 million Australians will have arthritis in 2025.
- By 2040, that number will rise to 5.39 million, a 31% increase, affecting over 2.1 million men and 3.2 million women.
The associated Lancet Rheumatology paper projects similar numbers and emphasises that arthritis will remain one of the largest contributors to disability in Australia by 2040. That has direct implications for demand for rheumatologists, orthopaedic surgeons, GPs, physiotherapists, occupational therapists, and community‑based rehabilitation and support workers.
These arthritis figures are just one example; similar trends in dementia, diabetes, cancer survivorship and mental health all point toward sustained demand growth for a broad range of health professions.
6. Global context: WHO and modelling approaches
Australia’s workforce projections sit within a broader global concern about health worker shortages.
The World Health Organization’s health workforce briefing notes that the world faces a projected shortfall of 10–11 million health workers by 2030, mostly in low‑ and lower‑middle‑income countries. While Australia is a high‑income country with comparatively strong workforce numbers, it is not immune to shortages in specific regions and specialties, and it competes globally for talent.
Some international modelling uses an “Australian health workforce estimation model” as a reference. A 2021 paper on Projection of health sector workforce requirement – Vision 2025 in Iran, for example, applied a modified Hall Model combined with an Australian workforce estimation model to project health worker requirements by occupation. This illustrates how Australia’s approach—need‑based, scenario‑driven modelling of requirements, supply and net gaps—informs global practice.
7. Strategic implications for planning and policy
Taken together, these projections and frameworks imply several strategic priorities for Australia’s health workforce planning:
Scale up training where demand is strongest. Federal and state models point to sustained growth in Health Care and Social Assistance employment, particularly in community and personal service roles, allied health, and primary care. Training places and clinical supervision capacity will need to expand to avoid deepening shortages.
Plan for regional and remote shortages. National modelling is increasingly granular by geography, and state projects like NSW’s allied health modelling highlight differing needs across Local Health Districts. Targeted incentives, rural training pipelines and new care models will be necessary to match supply to regional demand.
Design new roles and skill mixes. Megatrend reports emphasise the need for team‑based, digitally enabled care. That means planning not only how many workers are required, but what skills and new roles (for example, care coordinators, telehealth clinicians, advanced practice roles) are needed.
Integrate workforce planning with disease projections. Condition‑specific projections (like arthritis, dementia or mental health) should feed directly into workforce planning so that specialty and primary‑care skills align with future burden.
Use dynamic modelling, not static benchmarks. The Department of Health’s emphasis on complex supply–demand models recognises that technology, productivity, and care models will shift; planning must be regularly updated.