Australia’s Mergers and Acquisitions Trends has been through a turbulent few years, but dealmakers are now seeing clearer signs of stabilisation and structural change.
PwC’s Australia M&A Outlook 2026 reports that total Australian deal value reached about US$79.5 billion in 2025, only 8% down year‑on‑year, even as deal volumes fell to 1,285 transactions. This suggests fewer, larger and more strategic deals are being done as buyers focus on quality and transformational opportunities rather than pure volume.
At the same time, local advisors such as Gadens and MinterEllison see a market that is evolving rather than shrinking, with resilient public M&A activity and a strong pipeline heading into 2026. New regulatory settings—especially a mandatory merger notification regime for larger transactions—mean that strategy, competition risk and timing are now even more tightly linked for dealmakers.
This article unpacks the key M&A trends in Australia, the sectors driving activity, the regulatory shifts you need to know about, and what all of this means for investors, founders and corporate leaders planning deals over the next few years.
Snapshot of Mergers and Acquisitions Trends Activity
The headline numbers tell a story of a market that has cooled from the 2021 peak but remains fundamentally active. PwC’s 2026 outlook notes that Australian deal value in 2025 reached US$79.5 billion, with volumes down 8% but strategic intent still strong—over half of Australian CEOs surveyed (52%) are planning major acquisitions in the next three years. In parallel, William Buck’s Dealmaking Insights 2026 report highlights that M&A activity across Australia fell to a ten‑year low in 2025 with just 720 completed deals and aggregate transaction value of A$61 billion, underscoring the selectivity and caution in the market.
Quarterly data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that in Q2 2025, Australia recorded 169 M&A transactions worth US$35.6 billion, down almost 30% in deal count but up dramatically in total value compared with a year earlier. By Q4 2025, there were 172 transactions with total value of US$20.3 billion, again reflecting a shift towards higher‑value deals despite fewer announcements. S&P’s Q4 2025 update notes that the number of deals fell by about 30% versus Q4 2024, while value rose more than 50%.
The global backdrop matters as well. On a worldwide basis, McKinsey’s 2026 M&A trends report and Bain’s 2025 M&A review describe a “great rebound” in dealmaking, with global deal value rising sharply in 2025 after several years of decline. Australia is part of this broader story: macro uncertainty hasn’t disappeared, but buyers with strong balance sheets and clear strategic goals are back in the market.
Who Is Buying? Inbound, Domestic and Private Equity
One of the standout themes in recent Australian M&A is the role of foreign investors and private equity. PwC’s Outlook 2026 reveals that inbound deals accounted for 45% of total Australian deal value in 2025, up from 30% a year earlier, as global investors pursued high‑quality assets in a stable jurisdiction. The report also notes a 32% rise in private equity buyout value—to about US$30.5 billion across 95 deals—signalling renewed sponsor appetite after a quieter period.
Law firms echo this trend. Ashurst’s Australian Public M&A Deal Report 2026 notes strong US corporate and private equity interest in Australian targets and identifies 2026 as a potential “bumper year” for public M&A, particularly in technology, energy transition, real estate and resources. MinterEllison’s public M&A wrap similarly describes a resilient public M&A market in 2025 and a healthy appetite for corporate control transactions despite macro headwinds.
On the domestic side, mid‑market strategics remain active, especially in sectors going through consolidation or needing new capabilities. William Buck’s M&A activity analysis points out that small‑ and mid‑sized deals continue to dominate numerically, even as large transactions drive headline value.
Sectors Driving Australian M&A
Sector mix has shifted over the last few years, with some clear hotspots emerging. Ashurst’s public M&A report identifies materials/resources and financials as standout sectors for Australian public M&A in 2025, while flagging technology, energy transition assets and real estate as key areas to watch in 2026.
Energy and infrastructure are especially prominent. PwC notes that energy transition and digital infrastructure—including data centres, grid infrastructure and storage assets—are attracting sustained interest, with buyers willing to pay premiums for long‑term, predictable revenue streams tied to structural themes like decarbonisation and digitisation. S&P’s Q2 2025 data similarly highlights strong inbound activity in real estate and outbound activity in information technology and communication services.
Other sectors seeing consistent deal flow include:
- Financial services and wealth management, driven by consolidation and regulatory change.
- Healthcare and life sciences, where demographic trends and technology adoption support growth.
- Consumer and retail niches with strong brands or defensible positions in e‑commerce and specialty segments.
For a sector‑by‑sector breakdown of public deals, the Ashurst and MinterEllison reports are valuable resources, while PwC and William Buck provide a more mid‑market and cross‑border focus.
New Regulatory Landscape: ACCC, FIRB and Mandatory Merger Control
Perhaps the biggest structural change in Australian M&A is the shift towards a more formal, mandatory merger control regime. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) explains that from 1 January 2026, businesses must notify certain acquisitions to the ACCC and obtain clearance before they can proceed, marking the most significant reform to merger control in decades.
Under the new framework, outlined in detail by firms such as Pinsent Masons and Moore Australia, larger or strategically sensitive deals trigger mandatory pre‑completion notification, with suspensory provisions that effectively pause completion until the ACCC signs off. For foreign bidders, this ACCC process now interacts more closely with the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) framework, which continues to assess national interest and national security issues.
Moore Australia’s guide to the new merger control regime notes that from 1 January 2026, amendments are designed to reduce duplication between the ACCC and FIRB: ACCC‑cleared transactions can satisfy FIRB’s competition requirements, although FIRB may still impose conditions or reject a deal on broader national interest grounds. Separately, Pinsent Masons’ analysis explains that foreign and domestic bidders alike will need to plan for these regulatory timelines, incorporating ACCC filings into deal documentation and conditions precedent.
For a plain‑English overview of when and how to engage with the ACCC, the Commission’s own mergers and acquisitions guidance and the foreign investment guide from Lander & Rogers are useful starting points.
Key Deal‑Making Trends Shaping 2026
Looking at the Australian market through 2025 and into 2026, several themes stand out across reports from PwC, Gadens, William Buck and leading law firms.
1. Capability‑driven and transformative deals
PwC’s Outlook 2026 highlights a shift from simple scale plays to “capability deals,” where buyers focus on acquiring new technologies, talent and operating models. Over a third of CEOs in its survey say they are specifically targeting new capabilities, and more than a quarter are looking beyond their core sector. This aligns with global insights from McKinsey, which emphasise that capability‑led M&A is increasingly central to digital and AI transformation.
2. Evolving deal structures and funding
Deals are being structured more creatively. PwC notes increased use of minority stakes, staged investments and partnership structures as buyers seek optionality and sellers aim to retain upside. Law‑firm commentary, such as Gadens’ Australian M&A review, also points to greater use of earn‑outs, vendor financing and other innovative consideration mechanisms to bridge valuation gaps in uncertain markets.
Private equity remains a key driver, but sponsors are shifting from a pure buying phase to a more active selling and recycling mode as they look to crystallise returns on long‑held assets. Corrs Chambers Westgarth’s M&A 2025 Outlook suggests that private equity transactions are likely to increase, especially in the first half of 2025 and 2026 around the implementation of merger reforms, as funds race to close deals under known rules.
3. Regulatory risk as a core execution issue
With a new mandatory merger regime and integrated ACCC–FIRB processes, regulatory risk is no longer a box‑ticking exercise at the end of a deal—it is a core execution issue that can shape deal structure, pricing and timing. Moore Australia recommends early threshold analysis and pre‑notification engagement with the ACCC to clarify information requirements and avoid delays. Pinsent Masons makes a similar point, warning that large transactions will now face a formal, suspensory review akin to regimes in the EU and other major jurisdictions.
What These Trends Mean for Corporates and Investors
For Australian corporates, the current environment rewards clarity and preparation. MinterEllison’s public M&A wrap observes that 2025 proved Australian public M&A to be both resilient and adaptive, with executives using deals to reshape portfolios, divest non‑core assets and accelerate strategic shifts. Boards that can articulate a clear strategic rationale for M&A—whether it is capability acquisition, scale, or portfolio rotation—are better placed to secure investor support and navigate regulatory reviews.
For listed companies, public deals are increasingly scrutinised on governance, price and process. Ashurst’s Australian Public M&A Deal Report examines success rates, bid premiums and conditions in recent takeovers and schemes, and highlights that bidders who manage stakeholder expectations and regulatory engagement proactively tend to fare better.
From the investor side, global guides like Charles Schwab’s “IPO Basics: What to Know Before Investing” and local M&A education from brokers and research houses stress the importance of looking through the cycle. Consolidation waves in sectors such as energy transition, data infrastructure and financials can create opportunities both in targets and in acquirers, but only where balance sheets are sound and integration plans are credible.
Practical Considerations for Doing Deals in Australia
If you are planning a merger, acquisition or divestment in Australia over the next few years, several practical steps emerge consistently across advisory and regulatory guidance:
- Start with a robust strategic case
Reports from PwC and Gadens emphasise that deals grounded in clear strategic logic—capability uplift, portfolio optimisation, energy transition positioning—are more likely to create value and pass regulatory scrutiny. - Engage early on competition and foreign investment
Use ACCC resources such as “Mergers and acquisitions” and foreign investment guides like Lander & Rogers’ FIRB overview to understand thresholds, timing and likely concerns. Early engagement can shape transaction structure and closing conditions before you commit to a public timetable. - Expect more documentation and data‑driven review
The new regime described by Pinsent Masons and Moore Australia expects detailed competition submissions covering market definition, concentration and potential remedies. This level of analysis is increasingly standard globally, and Australian regulators are no exception. - Plan for longer, staged deal timelines
With mandatory notification and suspensory review, timetables need to build in ACCC decision periods and FIRB coordination. Corrs’ M&A 2025 Outlook anticipates tight timetables in the lead‑up to full implementation of the reforms, as bidders rush to sign deals under known frameworks. Expect more deals to feature long‑stop dates tailored to regulatory milestones. - Use data to benchmark valuation and terms
Market intelligence from S&P Global’s “Australia M&A By the Numbers”, along with Ashurst’s and MinterEllison’s public M&A reports, can help you benchmark premiums, conditions and success rates. William Buck’s mid‑market M&A activity insights are particularly useful if you operate below the mega‑deal level.
Conclusion: Navigating the Next Wave of Australian M&A
M&A trends in Australia over 2024–2026 point to a market that is leaner, more strategic and more heavily regulated, but still rich with opportunity for well‑prepared buyers and sellers. Deal value remains robust, foreign capital and private equity are active, and sectors linked to energy transition, digital infrastructure and financial services are attracting sustained interest. At the same time, a new mandatory merger control regime and more integrated ACCC–FIRB processes mean that competition and foreign investment issues now sit at the heart of deal execution.
Whether you are a founder considering a sale, a corporate planning a transformative acquisition or an investor trying to interpret the next wave of consolidation, combining official guidance from the ACCC and FIRB resources with market‑leading analysis from firms like PwC, Ashurst, MinterEllison and William Buck will help you see past the noise and focus on the deals that truly fit your strategy.