Aged care workforce demand in Australia is climbing rapidly as the population ages, and current staffing levels are already struggling to keep up with both volume and new quality‑of‑care standards. Projections from government and industry suggest the sector may need to almost triple its workforce by 2050, with potential shortfalls of hundreds of thousands of direct‑care workers if attraction, training and migration don’t scale up significantly.
How Big the Aged Care Workforce Is Now
Today’s aged care workforce is large—but not large enough for what’s coming.
The Department of Health and Aged Care’s Aged care workforce page notes that there are roughly 370,000–460,000 workers across aged, disability and community care, depending on classification. A summary of the Care Workforce Labour Market Study estimates about 460,000 care and support workers (excluding mental health), employed across aged care, disability, veterans’ care and child protection.
ABRS’s article “Aged care workforce projections are set to grow” points out that the aged‑care workforce alone comprises more than 366,000 people, around 3% of Australia’s total workforce, mostly in frontline direct‑care roles. A 2025 analysis of Australia’s aged care system published in PLOS ONE reports that personal care workers make up around 78% of direct‑care staff, highlighting how heavily the system relies on this group.
Curamoir HR’s 2025/26 article “Workforce Trends in 2025 and How Providers Can Stay Ahead in 2026” estimates around 456,000 aged‑care workers across residential and community programs and stresses the need for better supervision, support and career pathways to retain them.
Why Aged Care Workforce Demand Is Surging
The core driver is Australia’s rapidly ageing population.
Ageing Australia’s workforce strategy explains that between 2024 and 2044, the number of people aged 70 and over is projected to rise by about 2.3 million (67.8%). Within that group, the proportion aged 85+ is projected to increase from 17.4% to 24.1%, meaning many more people needing intensive and prolonged support.
These demographic shifts will significantly lift demand for both residential and home‑based care:
- Residential aged‑care beds are forecast to increase from around 200,000 to about 410,000 by 2044.
- Home‑care recipients are expected to grow from around 1.13 million to about 1.82 million people over the same period.
The Australian Nursing Institute’s article “Why Aged Care is Australia’s Fastest Growing Career” adds that by 2056, one in four Australians will be over 65 and nearly two million people will be 85+, pushing aged‑care demand higher for decades. It notes that aged‑care and disability‑support jobs are projected to grow by about 28% over the next five years, far faster than many other sectors.
A 2025 PLOS ONE study, “Comprehensive analysis of Australia’s aged care system”, concludes that the number of older adults using aged care is projected to triple to more than 3.5 million people, and warns that workforce “availability is a key challenge” in maintaining quality and access.
How Large Is the Workforce Gap?
Despite recent pay rises and reforms, multiple studies indicate that aged‑care workforce supply will fall well short of demand without major changes.
Ageing Australia’s workforce‑strategy page summarises modelling from the Care Workforce Labour Market Study and from CEDA:
- The care and support workforce (aged care, disability, veterans, etc.) is projected to face a gap of about 211,430 full‑time equivalent (FTE) positions by 2049–50.
- The Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) projects a shortfall of around 400,000 direct‑care aged‑care workers by 2050 under a scenario where care quality improves but workforce growth does not.
CEDA’s media release “Australia’s dire shortage of aged‑care workers requires urgent action” highlights that:
- Australia could face a shortage of at least 110,000 direct‑care workers within the next decade.
- Without significant policy action, the shortfall could exceed 400,000 by 2050.
- Direct‑care workers include personal‑care assistants, nurses and allied‑health staff in aged care.
The federal Aged Care Workforce Action Plan 2022–2025 similarly notes that workforce demand is expected to exceed supply, and that the workforce gap is projected to reach around 285,800 workers (headcount) by 2049–50 if trends continue.
A 2026 Parliamentary Library brief, “Who cares? Sustaining our aged care workforce”, describes current and projected shortages as a “significant policy concern,” stressing that they already hinder care quality, especially in regional and remote areas.
Who Makes Up the Aged Care Workforce?
A closer look at the workforce highlights where demand is most acute.
Ageing Australia’s workforce‑strategy overview notes:
- Approximately 456,000 workers are employed in aged care across residential and community programs.
- Aged and disability carers are projected to be Australia’s fastest‑growing occupation over the next decade.
- 51% of aged‑care workers in residential services were born overseas, showing the sector’s heavy reliance on migrant workers.
- Roughly one in six personal‑care workers holds a temporary visa, making workforce stability sensitive to migration policies.
The PLOS ONE study reports that personal‑care workers account for about 78% of the direct‑care workforce, with many working part‑time and on lower wages compared with other sectors. Curamoir HR’s workforce‑trends piece argues that providers must invest in better supervision, mentoring, and career pathways if they want to retain this core workforce and reduce turnover.
Healthcare Australia’s 2026 Aged Care Workforce Trends article notes that Personal Care Workers, Registered Nurses, Enrolled Nurses, Lifestyle Coordinators and Facility Managers are in shortage across all states and territories, with agency and contract staff regularly used to cover roster gaps.
Policy and Strategy: How Australia Is Responding
Recognising the scale of aged‑care workforce demand, the federal government has launched several strategies and action plans.
The Department of Health and Aged Care’s Aged care workforce page outlines key responses:
- Implementing the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety recommendations, including minimum care minutes and staffing standards.
- Supporting more training and education through programs like the Home Care Workforce Support Program, scholarships and clinical placements in aged care.
- Helping providers improve workforce planning, management and leadership.
The Aged Care Workforce Action Plan 2022–2025 sets three overarching goals—Grow, Skill and Enable the workforce—and lists 16 actions, including:
- Increasing the number of people entering the sector through targeted recruitment and training initiatives.
- Enhancing skills via dementia‑care training, qualifications and supervision improvements.
- Supporting providers with tools and guidance for workforce planning and management.
The earlier national strategy “A Matter of Care – Australia’s Aged Care Workforce Strategy” outlined 14 priority actions to reshape community attitudes to caring, create better career paths, and ensure staffing levels align with quality expectations. These strategies set the policy backdrop for current reforms and funding.
Grattan Institute’s article “Demand for aged care will only grow” notes that recent Fair Work Commission decisions and government funding have delivered pay rises of up to 13.5% for around 400,000 aged‑care workers, a crucial step to making the sector more attractive, though it also increases overall cost pressures.
Projections: Future Aged Care Workforce Demand
Several projections illustrate the scale of future workforce needs.
ABRS’s aged care workforce projections summarises Productivity Commission modelling that by 2050, 3.5 million Australians will be accessing aged care each year, and nearly one million direct‑care workers will be required to support them—almost tripling the current workforce.
The Australian Nursing Institute estimates that by 2026, the aged‑care and disability‑care workforce will exceed 341,800 workers, with job opportunities growing by about 28% over five years. Looking forward, it cites government modelling suggesting the sector could need more than one million workers by 2050 to meet demand, particularly as more people choose to age at home.
Carerise Global’s Australian Aged Care Workforce Projections Report finds similar trends, warning that without a major increase in new entrants, vacancies and unmet care needs will continue to rise, especially in regional and rural areas.
Aged Care Workforce Demand in 2026: On‑the‑Ground Trends
For 2026 specifically, several employment trends stand out.
Healthcare Australia’s 2026 workforce‑trends article highlights:
- Persistent shortages in personal‑care staff and nurses, particularly in regional and outer‑suburban facilities.
- Ongoing demand for flexible workforce solutions, such as agency work and locum contracts, to fill gaps.
- Growing need for staff experienced in dementia care, palliative care and behaviour support as resident acuity rises.
Curamoir HR’s 2025–26 trends note that providers facing intense competition for staff will need to differentiate themselves through:
- Improved supervision and mentoring, especially for new entrants.
- Clear career‑progression paths from entry‑level care roles into care coordination, nursing and leadership.
- Stronger focus on employee wellbeing to reduce burnout and turnover.
The 2026 Parliamentary Library brief argues that sustaining the workforce long‑term will require stable policy settings, continued investment in pay and conditions, and more support for training and development, particularly for personal‑care workers
